Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:43:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6406…bc04 other 279 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (216 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,700 (-3%) realized −$1,606 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%98W / 125L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day216.2pace
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$2,014now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$203
7 days+$294
14 days+$402
30 days+$396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$109
world 27% +$545
politics 25% −$93
tech 5% −$13
economics 2% −$67
finance 1% +$5
crypto 1% −$4
culture 1% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (216 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -1.6% -10.9% 45% 3% -8.7%
≤30d 223 -1.3% -10.7% 44% 4% -8.7%
≤90d 223 -1.3% -10.7% 44% 4% -8.7%
all 223 -1.3% -10.7% 44% 4% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover216.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 4% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 3% -17.5%
15% -27.0% 1% -25.4%
20% -34.2% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$2,014
Realized−$1,606
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses98 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Open positions56
Markets (closed)223 / 279
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$242
Trades / day216.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 80¢ 79¢ $288 $284 −$4 (-1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $208 $210 +$1 (+1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 75¢ 75¢ $151 $151 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $143 $144 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 87¢ 86¢ $87 $86 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 83¢ 83¢ $83 $83 +$0 (+0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 52¢ 52¢ $76 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 77¢ 74¢ $77 $75 −$3 (-3%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 67¢ 68¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $50 $51 +$2 (+3%)
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 84¢ 85¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 43¢ 42¢ $51 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No 76¢ 76¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 70¢ 70¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 82¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 80¢ 77¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-4%)
Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 77¢ 76¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? No 47¢ 47¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? No 59¢ 58¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 76¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Jun 21 $150 −$31 -21%
Will Bakir Izetbegović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Jun 21 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 21 $50 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $756 +$152 +20%
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Jun 21 $79 −$4 -5%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $1,252 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 Fren Jun 21 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 21 $998 $0 +0%
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Jun 21 $151 $0 -0%
Will Joao Cancelo stay at Al-Hilal? Jun 21 $7 −$1 -12%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 21 $150 +$1 +0%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $1,033 −$4 -0%
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 20 $171 −$2 -1%
Will Florian Wirtz score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $50 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $1,777 +$7 +0%
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial electio Jun 20 $99 −$10 -10%
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election Jun 20 $158 −$5 -3%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 20 $530 $0 -0%
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title? Jun 20 $112 −$4 -4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $961 −$4 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $62 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Jun 20 $6 $0 +2%
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 20 $33 $0 +1%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 20 $253 −$7 -3%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 20 $343 +$5 +2%
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title Jun 20 $114 −$17 -15%
Will Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 20 $39 −$3 -7%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $132 −$2 -2%
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $186 +$3 +1%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $300 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $84 −$7 -8%
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Jun 19 $245 −$2 -1%
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $58 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $76 $0 +0%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Jun 19 $85 $0 +0%
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 19 $83 +$2 +2%
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $32 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 19 $838 +$142 +17%
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election Jun 19 $7 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $409 $0 +0%
Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? Jun 19 $99 −$6 -6%
Will 100T make a roster change before August? Jun 19 $14 −$10 -70%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 18 $444 −$1 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 18 $414 +$4 +1%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 18 $65 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 70¢ $48 6m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $15 14m
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $7 16m
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $208 16m
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 70¢ $1 41m
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 55¢ $1 41m
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? SELL No 43¢ $37 43m
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential ele BUY No 47¢ $20 1h
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential ele BUY No 47¢ $3 1h
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $3 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $15 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 75¢ $150 1h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 55¢ $2 1h
Will Bakir Izetbegović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and SELL Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Rep BUY No 59¢ $15 1h
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Repre BUY No 47¢ $12 1h
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Repre BUY No 47¢ $24 1h
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Rep BUY No 59¢ $20 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $142 1h
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 2h
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 40¢ $20 2h
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? SELL No 85¢ $5 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $38 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $3 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $33 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $3 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $134 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $17 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $22 3h
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? SELL No 59¢ $23 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,014.26 · official $2,008.15 (match) · 3500 history records