Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:13:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
64 0x6408…c7ae crypto 168 markets active 2h ago coverage 676d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$11,858 (+9%) realized +$10,974 · open +$884
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate31%51W / 111L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$785per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$6,462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$287
14 days−$347
30 days+$1,473
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$11,887
other 4% −$1,930
politics 2% −$145
world 2% −$1,089
sports 2% −$429
economics 0% −$473
finance 0% +$237
tech 0% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -43.4% -48.7% 30% 30% -51.6%
≤30d 15 +4.5% -5.5% 47% 47% +41.9%
≤90d 77 -58.3% -62.3% 14% 14% -51.7%
all 162 +20.5% +9.0% 31% 26% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 26% -4.3%
10% -1.4% 23% -13.5%
15% -11.0% 20% -21.9%
20% -19.7% 17% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +92% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$451 vs −$143 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

676d coverage
Net worth$6,462
Realized+$10,974
Unrealized+$884
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses51 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)162 / 168
History coverage676d
Avg bet$785
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 72¢ $3,915 $5,362 +$1,447 (+37%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $684 $706 +$22 (+3%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 58¢ 15¢ $754 $195 −$559 (-74%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 18¢ 19¢ $92 $95 +$2 (+2%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 42¢ 42¢ $63 $62 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $69 $42 −$27 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $35 −$34 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $27 +$52 +196%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $167 +$76 +45%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$2 +11%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $18 −$17 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 07 $239 −$60 -25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $713 +$1,046 +147%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $26 +$60 +233%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? May 28 $340 +$265 +78%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 22 $655 +$449 +69%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 06 $902 −$394 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 1? Apr 30 $9 −$9 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3? Apr 29 $180 +$72 +40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $63 +$237 +376%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? Apr 27 $9 $0 -4%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? Apr 22 $460 −$284 -62%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? Apr 22 $753 −$609 -81%
Will Bitcoin dip to $93k November 3-9? Apr 22 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 12-18? Apr 22 $436 −$86 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on November 5? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 7? Apr 22 $140 −$116 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104,000 on November 2? Apr 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 1-7? Apr 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 6? Apr 22 $150 +$440 +293%
Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 27-November 2? Apr 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 1-7? Apr 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 19-25? Apr 22 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 17-23? Apr 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 2-8? Apr 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 November 24-30? Apr 22 $522 −$522 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 1-7? Apr 22 $112 −$112 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 30? Apr 22 $250 −$250 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 1? Apr 22 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 November 24-30? Apr 22 $510 −$510 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k November 3-9? Apr 22 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 15-21? Apr 22 $711 +$294 +41%
Will Bitcoin dip to $97k November 3-9? Apr 22 $295 −$295 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 22 $365 −$365 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 24-30? Apr 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 November 24-30? Apr 22 $305 −$305 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Clippers Apr 22 $20 −$20 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Apr 22 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in December? Apr 22 $721 −$721 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $64 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $35 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 23¢ $69 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 81¢ $5 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 79¢ $73 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $44 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $195 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $4 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 26¢ $27 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $167 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $80 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $49 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $106 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $124 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $327 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $21 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 5d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 29¢ $18 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $17 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 30¢ $29 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $18 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $298 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,462.47 · official $6,462.60 (match) · 1007 history records