Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x640c…9681 other 527 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$52 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate87%434W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$74
14 days−$62
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$1
politics 12% −$3
world 10% −$32
culture 8% +$12
tech 7% −$13
crypto 7% +$33
weather 2% −$7
sports 1% +$5
finance 1% +$5
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -7.0% -15.8% 87% 18% -17.5%
≤30d 150 +0.1% -9.4% 93% 20% -9.4%
≤90d 426 +1.2% -8.5% 90% 24% -9.0%
all 501 -0.3% -9.8% 87% 23% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 23% -9.3%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$362
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses434 / 67
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions26
Markets (closed)501 / 527
History coverage102d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 501 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $2.0B and $2.5B at market close on IPO day? No 97¢ 99¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026? No 98¢ 94¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-5%)
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+13%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 94¢ 95¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Yes 88¢ 82¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-7%)
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? No 96¢ 98¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? No 87¢ 87¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will Joaquin Seys be in Belgium's Starting 11? No 96¢ 97¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? No 92¢ 99¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+8%)
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.7B at market close on IPO day? No 95¢ 98¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Will Axel Witsel be in Belgium's Starting 11? No 94¢ 93¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Rodri: 1+ goals No 93¢ 86¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-7%)
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 97¢ 97¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Cabo Verde to win the second half? No 97¢ 96¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 98¢ 94¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Pedri: 1+ goals No 92¢ 78¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of Romania? No 97¢ 64¢ $17 $11 −$6 (-34%)
Will Eric García be in Spain's Starting 11? No 96¢ 52¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-46%)
Callum McCowatt: 1+ goals No 95¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Gabriel Gudmundsson: 1+ assists Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Anis Ben Slimane: 1+ goals Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Yukinari Sugawara be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Marten de Roon be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Noa Lang be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Bart Verbruggen be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Nick Woltemade be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Jamie Leweling be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $18 +$1 +7%
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Ferdi Kadıoğlu: 1+ goals Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Jackson Irvine: 1+ goals Jun 14 $22 +$1 +6%
Duckens Nazon: 1+ goals Jun 14 $21 +$3 +16%
Haiti to win the second half? Jun 14 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Alex Sandro be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Danilo be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Endrick be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $21 +$2 +7%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $22 +$2 +10%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $22 +$1 +4%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by bet Jun 13 $22 +$1 +4%
Will "Pope" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +5%
Will "Plastic" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 13 $16 +$2 +10%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists Jun 13 $17 +$1 +7%
Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals Jun 13 $18 +$2 +13%
Weston McKennie: 1+ goals Jun 13 $17 +$2 +11%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 13 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Kimbal Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 13 $21 +$1 +6%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $22 +$3 +13%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 12 $23 +$1 +4%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $18 +$1 +4%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Adobe Q2 total ARR be above $26.0B? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +5%
FDA approves Camurus' Oclaiz? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Oracle Q4 Cloud revenue be above $9.75B? Jun 10 $21 +$2 +7%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in May? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +3%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 10 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Ha Phan advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 10 $9 $0 +4%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $750M and $825M at mark Jun 10 $20 +$1 +4%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J Jun 09 $21 +$4 +18%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 09 $14 +$1 +10%
Will Apple announce an Apple Smart Home Display during the WWDC 2026 k Jun 09 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Apple announce a standalone Siri app during the WWDC 2026 keynote Jun 08 $19 +$2 +11%
Will Apple announce all six next-generation operating systems during t Jun 08 $17 +$1 +4%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Karmine Corp win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 07 $21 +$2 +10%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 6? Jun 07 $22 +$2 +7%
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2.75B and $3B at market Jun 05 $17 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Callum McCowatt: 1+ goals BUY No 95¢ $9 7m
Will Axel Witsel be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY No 94¢ $17 38m
Will Eric García be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY No 96¢ $17 58m
Will Joaquin Seys be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY No 96¢ $18 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY No 87¢ $4 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY No 87¢ $9 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY No 87¢ $4 1h
Anis Ben Slimane: 1+ goals BUY No 94¢ $5 11h
Rodri: 1+ goals BUY No 93¢ $7 16h
Gabriel Gudmundsson: 1+ assists BUY No 95¢ $14 19h
Anis Ben Slimane: 1+ goals BUY No 94¢ $9 20h
Will Noa Lang be in Netherlands's Starting 11? BUY No 94¢ $14 20h
Pedri: 1+ goals BUY No 92¢ $15 20h
Cabo Verde to win the second half? BUY No 97¢ $15 20h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY No 92¢ $16 21h
Rodri: 1+ goals BUY No 93¢ $9 21h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 95¢ $17 23h
Will Nick Woltemade be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY No 95¢ $17 23h
Will Jamie Leweling be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY No 93¢ $18 23h
Will Yukinari Sugawara be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY No 93¢ $19 24h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? BUY No 96¢ $1 24h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? BUY Yes 87¢ $19 24h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? BUY No 96¢ $10 24h
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $20 24h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? BUY No 96¢ $10 24h
Will Marten de Roon be in Netherlands's Starting 11? BUY No 94¢ $21 24h
Will Bart Verbruggen be in Netherlands's Starting 11? BUY Yes 93¢ $14 25h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 88¢ $22 25h
Will Alex Sandro be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY Yes 90¢ $17 40h
Ferdi Kadıoğlu: 1+ goals BUY No 97¢ $19 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $361.73 · official $361.74 (match) · 1098 history records