Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:24:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
64 0x640e…3110 other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$38
politics 17% −$7
sports 8% +$32
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 106 -1.9% -11.3% 8% 7% -9.6%
all 108 -1.9% -11.2% 8% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 6% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 6% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 6% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×8.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)108 / 111
History coverage91d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $180 $180 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 56¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $734 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $72 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $57 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 08 $68 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $57 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $118 $0 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $353 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $364 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $329 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $1,510 −$2 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $307 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $331 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $306 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $314 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $327 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $339 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $331 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $309 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $329 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $325 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $321 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $324 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $330 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $330 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 20 $325 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $321 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $332 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $330 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $334 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $996 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $320 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $338 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $348 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $692 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $16 5h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 24h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 25h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 44h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 47h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $65 2d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $180 3d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $65 3d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $43 5d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $72 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $72 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 9d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $68 10d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $68 10d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 16d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 16d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $60 17d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 18d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.51 · official $250.52 (match) · 339 history records