Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:46:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
64 0x640e…f2d4 sports 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,084 (-17%) realized −$6,885 · open −$199
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$889per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$150
7 days+$519
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$6,909
crypto 13% −$1,309
other 10% +$848
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -21.2% -28.7% 43% 43% +13.1%
≤30d 11 -31.6% -38.1% 36% 36% -10.6%
≤90d 15 -49.5% -54.3% 27% 27% -61.7%
all 45 -22.9% -30.3% 40% 40% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 40% -25.3%
10% -36.9% 40% -32.5%
15% -43.0% 38% -39.0%
20% -48.6% 38% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,013) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$791 vs −$793 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized−$6,885
Unrealized−$199
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage228d
Avg bet$889
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 36¢ $500 $301 −$199 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $255 −$255 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $302 +$248 +82%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $607 +$393 +65%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $255 −$250 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $508 +$534 +105%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $508 −$500 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,015 +$1,023 +101%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $359 −$350 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $417 −$410 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $400 −$378 -94%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 28 $5,209 −$5,140 -99%
Knicks vs. Hornets Mar 26 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-6.5) Mar 15 $990 −$990 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Mar 15 $504 −$504 -100%
Pistons vs. Raptors Mar 15 $502 −$502 -100%
Spread: Heat (-3.5) Mar 14 $216 −$216 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-7.5) Mar 14 $302 +$237 +78%
Bucks vs. Heat Mar 13 $300 −$300 -100%
UFC 326: Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $150 +$150 +100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Mar 08 $300 +$234 +78%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $300 +$511 +170%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 28 $100 +$249 +249%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Feb 28 $500 −$500 -100%
Rockets vs. Hornets Feb 18 $424 −$424 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 8? Jan 07 $250 −$250 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 8? Jan 07 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Dec 02 $384 +$216 +56%
Suns vs. Trail Blazers Nov 19 $986 +$712 +72%
Jazz vs. Lakers Nov 19 $483 −$483 -100%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $2,025 −$2,025 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $2,024 −$2,024 -100%
UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $3,040 +$2,854 +94%
UFC 322: Dariush vs. Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $1,040 +$558 +54%
UFC 322: Kopylov vs. Rodrigues (Middleweight, Prelims) Nov 16 $1,020 +$678 +66%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 11? Nov 11 $1,019 −$1,017 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 10? Nov 10 $799 +$899 +113%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 10? Nov 10 $2,000 +$558 +28%
Nets vs. Knicks Nov 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Ravens vs. Vikings Nov 09 $1,000 +$948 +95%
Browns vs. Jets Nov 09 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $5,740 +$3,229 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $51 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 6h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bra BUY $134 24h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $255 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 55¢ $302 4d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $255 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $607 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $508 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $102 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $508 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,039 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,015 12d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 16¢ $359 43d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 41¢ $417 44d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves SELL Spurs $22 44d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 40¢ $3 44d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 40¢ $164 44d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 40¢ $1 44d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 40¢ $136 44d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 40¢ $34 44d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 40¢ $4 44d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 40¢ $1 44d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 40¢ $30 44d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 40¢ $4 44d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 40¢ $1 44d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 40¢ $4 44d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 40¢ $1 44d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 40¢ $2 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.85 · official $473.22 · 138 history records