Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:12:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6410…3e97 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+15%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$24
sports 6% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -31.7% -38.2% 17% 17% -4.2%
≤30d 6 -31.7% -38.2% 17% 17% -4.2%
≤90d 6 -31.7% -38.2% 17% 17% -4.2%
all 6 -31.7% -38.2% 17% 17% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 17% -4.2%
10% -44.1% 17% -13.4%
15% -49.5% 17% -21.7%
20% -54.5% 0% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$12 · ×6.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage7d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $68 −$26 -38%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$3 -14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$22 -74%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $198 +$82 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $22 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $36 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $36 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $28 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $29 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $280 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $73 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $125 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records