Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:27:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6411…2cf2 crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%43W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$1
other 24% −$4
politics 14% $0
tech 2% +$1
economics 2% $0
world 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 53 +0.0% -9.5% 81% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses43 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage546d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? May 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $800 in March? Apr 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Mar 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 in January? Feb 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? Feb 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? Jan 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Nov 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? Oct 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 03 $18 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April? May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 03 $5 $0 +1%
XRP all time high in April? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Apr 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 18 $15 $0 -1%
Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in th Apr 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio Apr 09 $29 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +1%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Mar 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 04 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Solana hit $250 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Feb 07 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $7 62d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 100¢ $29 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 91d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 92d
Will BNB reach $800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $33 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 121d
Will Solana reach $180 in February? BUY No 100¢ $22 122d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 in January? BUY No 100¢ $4 151d
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? BUY No 100¢ $5 151d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $32 151d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $9 182d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? BUY No 100¢ $24 183d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $22 212d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $11 242d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? BUY No 100¢ $18 243d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? BUY No 100¢ $15 274d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? BUY No 99¢ $18 274d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $5 301d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $13 303d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $19 304d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? BUY No 100¢ $4 335d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $7 335d
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $29 335d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 363d
Will US leave NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $13 365d
Ethereum all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.21 · official $42.21 (match) · 111 history records