Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:49:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

64 0x6411…8f41 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 312d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$33 (+5%) realized +$37 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$146per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$370now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 312d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-17.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	+172.3%	+146.3%	100%	100%	+146.3%
≤90d	1	+172.3%	+146.3%	100%	100%	+146.3%
all	3	-9.2%	-17.9%	33%	33%	-1.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.9%	33%	-1.7%
10%	-25.7%	33%	-11.1%
15%	-32.9%	33%	-19.7%
20%	-39.5%	33%	-27.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +172% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$240 vs −$105 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.14 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

312d coverage

Net worth$370

Realized+$37

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage312d

Avg bet$146

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$294	$292	−$2 (-1%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$80	$78	−$2 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$139	+$240	+172%
Santos vs. Yoo	Oct 05	$60	−$60	-100%
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev	Aug 16	$150	−$150	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	62¢	$298	1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$82	1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$380	12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	36¢	$139	13d
Santos vs. Yoo	BUY Yoo	44¢	$60	262d
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev	BUY Du Plessis	30¢	$150	312d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $370.37 · official $370.37 (match) · 6 history records