Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:44:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
64 0x6413…556e crypto 201 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-1%) realized −$30 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate59%116W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$139
tech 4% −$9
other 0% +$1
sports 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -2.7% -11.9% 82% 5% -6.8%
≤30d 113 -4.0% -13.1% 66% 34% -11.8%
≤90d 198 -7.4% -16.3% 59% 39% -12.1%
all 198 -7.4% -16.3% 59% 39% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 39% -12.1%
10% -24.3% 31% -20.5%
15% -31.6% 25% -28.2%
20% -38.3% 21% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses116 / 82
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)198 / 201
History coverage79d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 90¢ 93¢ $181 $188 +$7 (+4%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $33 $17 −$16 (-48%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $58 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $65 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $61 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $190 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $198 −$76 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $192 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $194 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $139 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $92 +$108 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +26%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 02 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 31 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 31 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 31 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 31 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 31 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 31 $43 −$16 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 31 $50 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 31 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5AM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 31 $22 +$15 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 31 $138 −$48 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 31 $76 −$36 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 31 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 31 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 31 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 31 $31 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 31 $16 +$13 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 31 $39 +$27 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 31 $38 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 31 $102 −$29 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 31 $54 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 31 $39 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 31 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $47 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $32 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $14 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $58 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $46 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $12 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $43 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $40 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $65 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $56 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.69 · official $221.88 (match) · 857 history records