Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:29:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6413…ab24 world 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9,025 (-43%) realized −$9,025 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$998per market
Trades / day32.7pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$8,997
14 days−$8,995
30 days−$8,995
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% −$8,928
politics 0% −$68
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -16.0% -24.0% 45% 5% -48.4%
≤30d 21 -14.7% -22.9% 48% 10% -48.3%
≤90d 21 -14.7% -22.9% 48% 10% -48.3%
all 21 -14.7% -22.9% 48% 10% -48.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.9% 10% -48.3%
10% -30.2% 5% -53.3%
15% ← realistic here -37.0% 0% -57.8%
20% -43.2% 0% -61.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$621) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -35% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$838 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,025
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage9d
Avg bet$998
Trades / day32.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2,639 −$123 -5%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $384 +$95 +25%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $497 +$38 +8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $496 −$88 -18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $116 +$4 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $267 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $621 +$62 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $48 +$2 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $124 −$2 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $320 +$18 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $46 −$3 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,709 −$129 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $200 −$190 -95%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $7,043 −$6,567 -93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $4,662 −$1,282 -28%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 14 $87 −$68 -79%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $44 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $1,641 −$766 -47%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $11 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $278 45m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $252 49m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 72¢ $118 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $403 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $7 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $648 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $36 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $8 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 71¢ $116 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $15 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $49 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $42 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $35 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $391 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $5 18h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 63¢ $18 20h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 54¢ $15 21h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $46 22h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $71 22h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 22h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $142 22h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $127 22h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $146 23h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $497 40h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 75¢ $328 47h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 54¢ $151 47h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 54¢ $11 47h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 56¢ $3 47h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 56¢ $11 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 319 history records