Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
64 0x6415…a917 other 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+0%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%13W / 86L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$25
politics 22% −$5
sports 4% +$73
economics 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 +6.3% -3.8% 23% 8% -8.1%
≤90d 99 +5.4% -4.6% 13% 10% -9.3%
all 99 +5.4% -4.6% 13% 10% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 10% -9.3%
10% -13.8% 10% -18.0%
15% -22.1% 10% -25.9%
20% -29.7% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×11.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses13 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage89d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $115 $115 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 05 $77 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $41 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $40 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $11 +$10 +83%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $245 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $251 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $417 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $235 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 04 $247 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $422 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $258 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $256 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $257 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $412 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $246 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $250 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $242 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $247 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $242 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 16 $257 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $249 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $243 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $254 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $236 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $244 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $247 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 13 $408 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $247 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 12 $243 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $237 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $256 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $253 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $583 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 5h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 4d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $115 5d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 12d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 12d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 13d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 14d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 14d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 22d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 22d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 23d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 23d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $77 23d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 24d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 24d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 27d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $101 28d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $54 28d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 28d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 54¢ $11 29d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $41 31d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $41 31d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $228 34d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $228 34d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $245 34d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $245 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.73 · official $114.73 (match) · 256 history records