Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:59:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
64 0x641b…65bf other 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%6W / 79L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$15
politics 29% −$10
sports 6% +$58
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 77 +2.1% -7.6% 6% 5% -9.4%
all 85 +0.8% -8.8% 7% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 5% -9.4%
10% -17.5% 4% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 4% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×21.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses6 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage118d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $243 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $228 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $270 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 02 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $237 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $218 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $237 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $462 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $267 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $299 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $263 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $283 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $291 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $275 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $320 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $257 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $270 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $221 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $296 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $318 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $237 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $278 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $301 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $297 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $268 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 08 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $223 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 07 $315 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $228 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $248 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $431 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $288 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $549 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 34h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $148 32d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $148 33d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $243 46d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $243 47d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $228 47d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $228 48d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $319 49d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $319 49d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $270 49d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $270 49d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $273 50d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $273 50d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $312 51d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $312 51d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $301 51d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $301 52d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $237 52d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $237 52d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $218 52d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $218 52d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $237 53d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $237 53d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $320 53d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $320 53d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $283 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.94 · official $24.94 (match) · 265 history records