Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:37:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
64 0x641d…37d9 crypto 458 markets active 1h ago coverage 706d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$703 (-1%) realized −$703 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate76%346W / 112L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days−$269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,329
sports 4% −$68
world 2% +$207
other 2% +$41
politics 1% +$65
economics 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 47 -5.1% -14.2% 91% 4% -13.2%
≤90d 157 -2.6% -11.8% 87% 17% -9.1%
all 458 -3.8% -13.0% 76% 27% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 27% -10.6%
10% -21.3% 20% -19.1%
15% -28.9% 17% -26.9%
20% -35.9% 14% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$120 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

706d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$703
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses346 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)458 / 458
History coverage706d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 458 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $145 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $146 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $145 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $143 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $142 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $139 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $139 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $137 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $133 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $132 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $131 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $125 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $123 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $122 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $121 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $119 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $116 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $112 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $112 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $112 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $111 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $111 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $110 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $107 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $102 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $102 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $98 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 08 $205 −$174 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 08 $102 −$97 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 07 $150 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 06 $151 +$14 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $150 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 06 $150 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $151 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $328 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 06 $301 +$17 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 06 $308 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $161 −$161 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 05 $268 +$41 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 05 $267 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 05 $264 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 27 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 22 $162 −$162 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 22 $179 −$179 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $145 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $146 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $145 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $143 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $142 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $139 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $139 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $137 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $133 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $132 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $131 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $125 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $123 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $122 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $121 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $119 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $116 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $112 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $112 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $112 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $111 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $111 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $110 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $107 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $99 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1025 history records