Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x641f…26ff crypto 173 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$110 (-5%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%61W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$146
7 days−$146
14 days−$146
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$148
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -5.0% -14.1% 28% 28% -43.1%
≤30d 173 -15.5% -23.5% 35% 35% -15.2%
≤90d 173 -15.5% -23.5% 35% 35% -15.2%
all 173 -15.5% -23.5% 35% 35% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 35% -15.2%
10% -30.8% 35% -23.3%
15% -37.5% 35% -30.7%
20% -43.6% 31% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$12 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses61 / 112
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)173 / 173
History coverage28d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 173 Trades
no open positions (110 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $29 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $24 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET Jun 27 $48 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$9 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $14 +$16 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$17 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $17 +$33 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$11 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $7 +$10 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$13 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$26 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$4 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $7 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9AM ET Jun 03 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 03 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 03 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 03 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 03 $12 +$9 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 03 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 03 $24 +$22 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 03 $18 +$13 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $8 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 320 history records