Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6421…d815 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$49 (+3%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$491
other 47% −$477
crypto 2% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -8.1% -16.8% 29% 29% -10.9%
≤30d 24 -8.1% -16.8% 29% 29% -10.9%
≤90d 24 -8.1% -16.8% 29% 29% -10.9%
all 24 -8.1% -16.8% 29% 29% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 29% -10.9%
10% -24.8% 29% -19.4%
15% -32.0% 29% -27.2%
20% -38.7% 29% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$63 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage3d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $33 +$22 +65%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $195 +$367 +188%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $105 −$103 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $137 +$88 +64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $31 +$48 +158%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $68 −$67 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $82 −$80 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $129 +$120 +93%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$260 +254%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $199 −$194 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $162 −$158 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 +$141 +684%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 18¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? AND Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Jap BUY 2¢ $20 4h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY 27¢ $134 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $33 14h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 24h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $562 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 34¢ $195 25h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 21¢ $82 26h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $225 27h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $79 27h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $72 28h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $31 29h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $68 30h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $137 30h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $129 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $362 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $96 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $162 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records