Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:43:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x6422…fead
other · 8 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
−$193 -33%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$194 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$99
Realized−$194
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%
Chart Positions 2 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$178
7 days−$194
14 days−$194
30 days−$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $68 +$37 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $251 −$250 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$32 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$5 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 88% −$174
sports 12% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $68 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $251 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 30h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 30¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.8% -10.2% 67% 50% -45.8%
≤30d 6 -0.8% -10.2% 67% 50% -45.8%
≤90d 6 -0.8% -10.2% 67% 50% -45.8%
all 6 -0.8% -10.2% 67% 50% -45.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 50% -45.8%
10% -18.8% 50% -51.0%
15% -26.7% 33% -55.7%
20% -33.9% 33% -60.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.62 · official $98.62 (match) · 14 history records