Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x6422…b802
other · 14 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$10 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%
Chart Positions 5 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? No 64¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 +$27 +442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 77% +$11
sports 23% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 10h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 16h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 28h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 28h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 28h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $2 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $8 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -7.8% -16.6% 33% 33% +9.4%
≤30d 9 -7.8% -16.6% 33% 33% +9.4%
≤90d 9 -7.8% -16.6% 33% 33% +9.4%
all 9 -7.8% -16.6% 33% 33% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 33% +9.4%
10% -24.5% 33% -1.0%
15% -31.8% 33% -10.6%
20% -38.5% 11% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.11 · official $10.57 (match) · 20 history records