Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:32:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6424…6c58 other 234 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%17W / 216L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$27
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$39
sports 22% −$15
culture 8% −$6
economics 7% −$7
politics 7% −$6
crypto 5% −$2
world 4% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 233 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses17 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)233 / 234
History coverage128d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $339 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $185 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 17 $239 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 17 $612 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $295 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $822 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $539 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $259 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $401 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $469 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $437 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $235 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $464 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $393 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $433 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $311 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $177 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $485 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $224 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $373 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $404 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $193 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $633 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $287 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $237 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $268 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $289 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $797 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $560 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $278 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $138 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $278 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $276 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $201 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $437 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 3h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 5h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 6h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 11h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 12h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $50 14h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $50 15h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $50 17h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 19h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 20h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 22h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 23h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 25h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $50 27h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $50 29h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 30h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 32h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $50 32h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 33h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 36h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $50 38h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $10 39h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $10 41h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 42h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 44h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 45h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 47h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.20 · official $49.20 (match) · 1341 history records