Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:30:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6424…2718 weather 575 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$249 (-4%) realized −$361 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%222W / 267L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$141
7 days+$111
14 days+$98
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 76% −$335
crypto 12% −$73
world 8% +$84
politics 2% −$68
other 1% +$29
tech 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 +7.9% -2.4% 62% 50% +2.0%
≤30d 274 -1.3% -10.7% 47% 41% -5.3%
≤90d 489 -6.5% -15.4% 45% 42% -14.7%
all 489 -6.5% -15.4% 45% 42% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 42% -14.7%
10% -23.5% 33% -22.8%
15% -30.9% 24% -30.3%
20% -37.7% 18% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$357
Realized−$361
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses222 / 267
Open positions86
Markets (closed)489 / 575
History coverage71d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 86 History 489 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? No 92¢ 92¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? No 91¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 68¢ 81¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? No 65¢ 91¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 94¢ 90¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? No 83¢ 96¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? No 72¢ 69¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? No 91¢ 92¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 89¢ 96¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 89¢ 90¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? No 84¢ 94¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Yes 30¢ 46¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+55%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 94¢ 96¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 76¢ 76¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 16? No 96¢ 94¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 84¢ 88¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? No 87¢ 84¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 74¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? No 84¢ 83¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? No 89¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? No 84¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? No 81¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$8 +213%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$7 +540%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +540%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $8 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +218%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $4 +$6 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +367%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $5 13m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $5 13m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $5 14m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 15m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 60¢ $3 20m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $5 21m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 92¢ $6 21m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 21m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $5 24m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $5 24m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $4 24m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 74¢ $4 25m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 52¢ $3 25m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 55¢ $3 25m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $6 25m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 36m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 36m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 36m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 36m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 36m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 41m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 41m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 41m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 41m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 41m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 41m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 41m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 41m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.40 · official $357.43 (match) · 1149 history records