Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
64 0x642c…c957 world 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13 (-3%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 97% −$5
sports 1% −$7
crypto 1% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 12 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -10.6%
all 18 -5.7% -14.7% 44% 0% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 0% -12.0%
10% -22.8% 0% -20.4%
15% -30.3% 0% -28.1%
20% -37.1% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage490d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 12¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $36 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $36 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $73 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $32 +$2 +7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $39 −$8 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 23–30? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Kentucky win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will there be 3+ fights in NHL 4 Nations Final? Mar 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 58¢ $36 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 58¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $0 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $3 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $36 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $0 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $36 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $7 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $36 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $32 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $2 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $32 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 74¢ $31 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $39 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records