Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
64 0x6430…8eab other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 595d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$69 (+24%) realized +$71 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 595d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$31
politics 21% −$59
sports 14% +$101
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +73.6% +57.1% 60% 60% +145.7%
≤30d 5 +73.6% +57.1% 60% 60% +145.7%
≤90d 5 +73.6% +57.1% 60% 60% +145.7%
all 6 +44.7% +30.9% 50% 50% +37.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.9% 50% +37.4%
10% +18.4% 50% +24.2%
15% +6.9% 50% +12.2%
20% -3.6% 33% +1.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +172% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$25 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized+$71
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage595d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $146 $145 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $29 +$111 +388%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 +$28 +134%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $59 −$59 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $149 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $29 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 8h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $10 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 12h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 46¢ $59 594d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.66 · official $144.66 (match) · 11 history records