Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x6434…845b
crypto · 281 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$37 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$55 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses128 / 150
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)278 / 281
History coverage40d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 278 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 52¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$4 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$54
sports 1% +$1
other 1% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -3.0% -12.2% 44% 44% -14.0%
≤30d 63 -7.2% -16.1% 43% 43% -16.0%
≤90d 278 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 45% -16.8%
all 278 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 45% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 45% -16.8%
10% -22.5% 44% -24.7%
15% -30.0% 42% -32.0%
20% -36.9% 39% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.89 · official $4.09 (match) · 778 history records