Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:22:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
64 0x6436…d5e4 politics 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%11W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$652now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% +$1
politics 28% +$1
tech 27% +$5
world 6% $0
other 5% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 11 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$652
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses11 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage69d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $651 $652 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 17? Jun 17 $344 +$1 +0%
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 15? Jun 16 $236 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $411 +$4 +1%
Will "Cleaner" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa advance from the 2026 California Governor pr Jun 11 $210 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $296 $0 +0%
Will Kang Seung-kyu win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $246 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 in May? Jun 02 $190 $0 +0%
Will Aiden Gonzalez be the Democratic nominee for PA-07? May 21 $130 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Shupe be the Democratic nominee for PA-07? May 21 $514 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 13 above $320? Apr 18 $643 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $651.71 · official $651.71 (match) · 25 history records