Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:59:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6436…da96 sports 567 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,082 (-3%) realized −$4,209 · open −$2,873
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate66%349W / 177L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$441per market
Trades / day63.7pace
Fees−$815est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$12,330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$5,596
other 20% −$4,104
world 19% +$1,430
crypto 16% −$2,357
finance 2% −$1,466
politics 2% +$19
tech 1% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 230 -9.1% -17.8% 65% 35% -13.5%
≤30d 437 -1.8% -11.2% 62% 35% -14.7%
≤90d 526 -2.4% -11.7% 66% 33% -12.9%
all 526 -2.4% -11.7% 66% 33% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 33% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 21% -21.3%
15% -27.9% 13% -28.9%
20% -35.0% 9% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$186 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$12,330
Realized−$4,209
Unrealized−$2,873
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses349 / 177
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$815
Open positions40
Markets (closed)526 / 567
History coverage40d
Avg bet$441
Trades / day63.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 526 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 66¢ $3,499 $3,986 +$487 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $1,740 $1,628 −$112 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,000 $924 −$76 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $750 $748 −$2 (-0%)
Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 78¢ $440 $498 +$58 (+13%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $504 $483 −$21 (-4%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 58¢ 54¢ $493 $455 −$38 (-8%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $462 $399 −$63 (-14%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $483 $391 −$92 (-19%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 84¢ 79¢ $300 $282 −$18 (-6%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 75¢ 79¢ $250 $263 +$13 (+5%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ 28¢ $586 $261 −$325 (-55%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? No 82¢ 82¢ $250 $250 +$1 (+0%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 86¢ 65¢ $310 $235 −$75 (-24%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 85¢ 93¢ $173 $189 +$16 (+9%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 74¢ 34¢ $333 $151 −$182 (-55%)
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $112 $151 +$39 (+35%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $365 $117 −$248 (-68%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 29¢ 14¢ $251 $117 −$134 (-53%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 22¢ 63¢ $38 $107 +$69 (+184%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $130 $101 −$29 (-22%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $150 $101 −$49 (-32%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 21¢ 5¢ $353 $81 −$272 (-77%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 6¢ $250 $74 −$176 (-70%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $100 $57 −$43 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $151 +$22 +15%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $489 +$104 +21%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $102 +$116 +114%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $502 −$500 -100%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1,003 −$1,000 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $501 −$500 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $333 +$14 +4%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $223 −$220 -98%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $553 −$139 -25%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,014 +$909 +90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$34 +34%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $152 −$5 -3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 14 $400 +$8 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $26 +$9 +35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $1,035 −$397 -38%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $3,533 +$881 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2,134 −$323 -15%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,056 −$135 -13%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $251 +$36 +14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $463 +$5 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $200 +$48 +24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $497 +$196 +39%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,001 +$23 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7,176 +$364 +5%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $154 −$150 -97%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 14 $303 −$300 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $254 −$250 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $16 +$3 +18%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $267 +$29 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $301 +$40 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $702 +$70 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 14 $202 +$88 +44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $603 +$139 +23%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $303 +$132 +44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $101 +$20 +20%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $465 +$35 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,001 +$21 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $460 +$40 +9%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $503 +$130 +26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $174 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $593 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $593 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $873 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $32 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $1,070 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 82¢ $489 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $503 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $993 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 88¢ $228 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,783 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $502 6h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,003 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 87¢ $151 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $500 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $501 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $5,010 6h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $241 9h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $43 9h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $3 9h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $6 10h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $7 10h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $30 10h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,330.34 · official $12,327.27 (match) · 2862 history records