Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:11:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x643c…3fc2 sports 828 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,373 (+6%) realized +$3,417 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%330W / 459L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$810est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$3,011now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,134
7 days+$1,670
14 days+$3,536
30 days+$3,286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$8,415
other 25% −$4,759
world 5% −$484
politics 2% −$175
crypto 1% +$96
tech 1% −$49
finance 0% +$3
economics 0% −$19
culture 0% −$6
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +2.8% -7.0% 43% 38% -4.4%
≤30d 160 -2.6% -11.9% 42% 38% -3.1%
≤90d 764 -1.6% -11.0% 41% 33% -4.4%
all 789 +0.1% -9.4% 42% 34% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 34% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 30% -13.4%
15% -26.0% 25% -21.8%
20% -33.2% 21% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$55 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$3,011
Realized+$3,417
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses330 / 459
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$810
Open positions39
Markets (closed)789 / 828
History coverage92d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 789 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 35¢ $3,173 $1,608 −$1,566 (-49%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 9¢ 17¢ $76 $143 +$67 (+88%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 70¢ 100¢ $97 $139 +$42 (+43%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $92 $122 +$31 (+34%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 65¢ $13 $92 +$79 (+622%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $86 $88 +$2 (+2%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 52¢ $66 $77 +$11 (+17%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 82¢ $70 $77 +$8 (+11%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $71 $72 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 68¢ $69 $67 −$2 (-4%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $70 $65 −$5 (-7%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 50¢ 67¢ $44 $59 +$15 (+35%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? No 85¢ 100¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+17%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? No 80¢ 93¢ $42 $49 +$7 (+16%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $49 $45 −$4 (-8%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $43 $41 −$2 (-4%)
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Yes 42¢ 52¢ $22 $27 +$5 (+22%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 75¢ 66¢ $26 $23 −$3 (-11%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $43 $23 −$20 (-46%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 44¢ $11 $20 +$9 (+85%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+12%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 71¢ 18¢ $70 $18 −$52 (-74%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 84¢ 72¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 84¢ 84¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Yes 5¢ 13¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+156%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $12 −$1 -8%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $32 +$3 +9%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $14 +$1 +7%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $96 −$7 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $71 $0 -0%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $73 +$63 +86%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $55 +$90 +165%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $65 +$307 +474%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $63 +$77 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $44 +$83 +188%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $62 −$61 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $65 −$63 -96%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,559 −$1,539 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $96 +$38 +40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 +$16 +44%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 +$10 +73%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $96 +$9 +9%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$3 -14%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska Jun 17 $100 −$5 -5%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$12 -12%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $96 +$22 +23%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $17 +$9 +51%
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? Jun 17 $26 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $54 +$22 +40%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $103 $0 +0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $75 +$65 +86%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,535 +$1,365 +54%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $4,519 −$4,519 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $77 −$10 -12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $994 +$867 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $33 +$6 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $6 $0 -8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $47 +$16 +35%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $29 −$27 -94%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 16 $244 −$21 -8%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $33 −$19 -58%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,708 −$1,708 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 16 $7 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $22 −$2 -8%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $75 +$72 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $53 +$65 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $43 54m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $198 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $221 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $80 7h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima SELL Alex de Minaur 71¢ $11 7h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $252 7h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $282 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 8h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $315 10h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $348 13h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Alex de Minaur 71¢ $12 13h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 74¢ $70 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $73 16h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 69¢ $64 16h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $72 16h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 30¢ $21 16h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $24 16h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 75¢ $27 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $70 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 78¢ $64 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $71 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $70 19h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $65 20h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 13¢ $0 22h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $63 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $44 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $62 29h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $65 34h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $11 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,011.47 · official $3,121.15 · 2726 history records