Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x643c…71a9 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$1
sports 16% $0
politics 13% +$1
other 10% $0
crypto 9% +$1
finance 5% −$1
economics 5% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 13 +1.9% -7.8% 31% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 13 +1.9% -7.8% 31% 8% -9.4%
all 35 +0.3% -9.2% 37% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 3% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage304d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $32 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $60 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $34 −$2 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $29 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $49 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $10 +$3 +26%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 15 $43 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 21 $29 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 21 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in August? Aug 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Aug 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 19 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Aug 18 $1 $0 -21%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Aug 18 $29 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $32 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 14h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $33 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $9 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 60¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $28 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $26 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $34 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $29 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $35 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $15 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $19 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $32 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $31 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.73 · official $32.69 (match) · 109 history records