Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:39:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x643f…6663 crypto 239 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$243 (-4%) realized −$299 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%118W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$797now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days−$26
14 days−$81
30 days−$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$458
world 12% −$27
other 6% +$107
politics 5% +$22
sports 2% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -16.4% -24.3% 56% 48% -9.8%
≤30d 202 -13.0% -21.3% 53% 48% -13.7%
≤90d 226 -14.8% -22.9% 52% 48% -16.6%
all 226 -14.8% -22.9% 52% 48% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 48% -16.6%
10% -30.3% 37% -24.6%
15% -37.0% 27% -31.8%
20% -43.2% 16% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$797
Realized−$299
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses118 / 108
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)226 / 239
History coverage54d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $270 $266 −$4 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 39¢ 50¢ $70 $89 +$19 (+27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 38¢ 50¢ $58 $75 +$17 (+29%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $70 $74 +$4 (+6%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 39¢ 36¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $66 $47 −$19 (-29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 4¢ 50¢ $3 $37 +$34 (+1138%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 19¢ 50¢ $14 $36 +$22 (+162%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Yes 23¢ 19¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $63 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$28 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$30 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $63 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$15 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$32 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$3 +16%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $102 +$104 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$2 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$25 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$13 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $83 −$23 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $73 −$11 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$6 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $31 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $12 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $18 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $32 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $8 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $18 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $31 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $11 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $33 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $31 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $31 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $13 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $14 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $37 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $42 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $16 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $796.77 · official $797.21 (match) · 826 history records