Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:51:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x644c…9b6a
crypto · 805 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$108 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$94 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses748 / 57
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)805 / 805
History coverage177d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 0 History 805 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$148
14 days+$193
30 days+$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - January 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 23? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 22? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 19? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 7? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 3? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 3? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 3? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on May 2? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 6? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? No 68¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 26? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 23? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 26? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 7? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on April 24? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Clippers Clippers 67¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 2? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $37 +$13 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $91 +$17 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$18 +88%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $29 +$16 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 −$12 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$6 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $40 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $51 +$21 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $17 +$36 +215%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 +$7 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $19 +$5 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$4 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$7 +133%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 +$11 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 7? Jun 07 $70 +$7 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $21 +$27 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 23? May 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 23? May 22 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 22? May 22 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 22? May 22 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 6? May 07 $3 +$7 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 6? May 06 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 7? May 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 7? May 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 3? May 06 $3 +$7 +233%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 3? May 06 $10 +$10 +110%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 3? May 03 $8 −$8 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% −$29
weather 5% −$47
other 3% +$155
sports 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $21 15m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 29m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $21 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 25h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 25h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 25h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $21 25h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 26h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $98 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 53¢ $12 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $40 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $25 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $12 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 43¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 94¢ $41 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL No 81¢ $38 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 42¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? SELL Yes 70¢ $11 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +11.3% +0.7% 74% 49% +8.3%
≤30d 43 +10.2% -0.3% 74% 49% +10.0%
≤90d 101 +9.4% -1.0% 62% 48% +0.1%
all 805 +1.4% -8.2% 93% 7% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 7% -8.9%
10% -17.0% 5% -17.6%
15% -25.0% 4% -25.6%
20% -32.4% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2034 history records