Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x644d…978b
crypto · 142 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$48 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$50 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses63 / 76
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)139 / 142
History coverage69d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 3 History 139 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ 78¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 28¢ 28¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 +$5 +483%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 $0 -20%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $8 +$4 +44%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -25%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $39 +$5 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -83%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +40%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$2 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +346%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 $0 -34%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 08 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 08 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 08 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 08 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 08 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 08 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 08 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 08 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 08 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 08 $4 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 08 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 08 $1 +$1 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 69% −$64
sports 20% +$12
world 6% $0
other 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 28¢ $1 0m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 28¢ $1 0m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 28¢ $1 4m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 28¢ $1 16m
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 96¢ $5 44m
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $1 44m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 90¢ $2 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ $3 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 68¢ $3 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $1 1h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 16¢ $1 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $3 3h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 14h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +52.4% +37.9% 56% 56% +7.1%
≤30d 18 +52.4% +37.9% 56% 56% +7.1%
≤90d 139 -7.7% -16.5% 45% 41% -20.8%
all 139 -7.7% -16.5% 45% 41% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 41% -20.8%
10% -24.5% 38% -28.4%
15% -31.8% 35% -35.3%
20% -38.4% 24% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.42 · official $13.42 (match) · 468 history records