Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x644f…252a world 68 markets active 11h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-7%) realized −$27 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate44%27W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$10
14 days−$9
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% −$32
finance 7% −$10
other 6% +$10
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -13.9% -22.1% 38% 23% -19.6%
≤30d 40 -12.7% -21.0% 35% 18% -20.1%
≤90d 62 -9.3% -17.9% 44% 26% -16.5%
all 62 -9.3% -17.9% 44% 26% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 26% -16.5%
10% -25.8% 13% -24.5%
15% -33.0% 3% -31.8%
20% -39.5% 2% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)62 / 68
History coverage42d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $5 −$3 -52%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -25%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $5 −$1 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -23%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $4 −$2 -36%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $5 −$3 -56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 30 $5 −$1 -26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $10 +$1 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 27 $5 −$1 -23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $5 −$1 -28%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $5 +$2 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $5 −$1 -20%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $5 −$1 -24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $10 −$3 -25%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 23 $5 −$1 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 22 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 22 $5 −$3 -56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $10 −$3 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $5 $0 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 20 $5 $0 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 16 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? May 16 $5 −$1 -28%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 15 $5 −$1 -23%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 15 $5 −$2 -50%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 15 $5 −$2 -42%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 15 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $5 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 18h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 58¢ $7 20h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 44¢ $5 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 84¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 12¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 65¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 56¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 56¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 15¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.07 · official $70.04 (match) · 172 history records