Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:49:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6452…616d crypto 232 markets active 2h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,706 (-9%) realized −$12,705 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate63%146W / 84L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$613per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$153
7 days−$65
14 days−$62
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 25% −$6,783
crypto 19% −$2,372
politics 15% −$2,409
tech 11% +$761
other 9% +$561
economics 6% −$104
world 6% +$160
sports 4% −$3,063
finance 2% +$214
culture 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -19.0% -26.7% 60% 50% -13.3%
≤30d 48 -9.1% -17.8% 60% 38% -9.5%
≤90d 48 -9.1% -17.8% 60% 38% -9.5%
all 230 -9.0% -17.7% 63% 30% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 30% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 20% -22.6%
15% -32.8% 13% -30.0%
20% -39.3% 10% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$533) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$268 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$281
Realized−$12,705
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses146 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)230 / 232
History coverage237d
Avg bet$613
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $193 $193 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $89 $88 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $305 +$93 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $160 −$91 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $153 −$39 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$39 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $104 +$29 +28%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $413 +$87 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $235 +$4 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $623 +$27 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 02 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 02 $45 +$55 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $63 −$62 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 02 $99 +$201 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 02 $131 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 02 $150 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 02 $72 −$69 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 02 $304 +$101 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 02 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 02 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 02 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 02 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 02 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 02 $26 +$19 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 02 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 02 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 02 $55 +$73 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 02 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 02 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 02 $51 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 02 $77 +$33 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 02 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 02 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 02 $229 −$225 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 02 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 02 $105 +$200 +191%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 30? May 31 $686 +$14 +2%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $300 +$100 +33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $2,211 +$100 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 30? May 30 $92 −$50 -54%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $92 +$8 +9%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? May 29 $1,473 +$27 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 25 $1,467 +$33 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 23 $160 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $131 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $24 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.40 · official $281.40 (match) · 2138 history records