Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:50:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x6452…30a1
other · 81 markets active 9h ago
6.0score
+$7,228 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10,568 · open −$3,057
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$36,074
Realized+$10,568
Unrealized−$3,057
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses23 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions36
Markets (closed)49 / 81
Avg bet$1,064
Trades / day45.2
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit40%
Chart Positions 36 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$290
7 days−$290
14 days−$128
30 days+$2,379
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $5,000 $5,082 +$82 (+2%)
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4,381 $3,851 −$530 (-12%)
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,619 $3,803 +$184 (+5%)
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $3,000 $3,086 +$86 (+3%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 72¢ 72¢ $2,000 $2,021 +$21 (+1%)
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,358 $1,507 +$150 (+11%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $1,273 $1,265 −$8 (-1%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1,500 $1,125 −$375 (-25%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $1,000 $1,093 +$93 (+9%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 80¢ $1,000 $981 −$19 (-2%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No 92¢ 86¢ $1,000 $938 −$62 (-6%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 69¢ $1,000 $931 −$69 (-7%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1,500 $875 −$625 (-42%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,000 $864 −$136 (-14%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 69¢ 59¢ $1,000 $853 −$147 (-15%)
Base FDV above $10B one day after launch? No 65¢ 72¢ $660 $736 +$76 (+12%)
Base FDV above $12B one day after launch? No 69¢ 76¢ $597 $657 +$60 (+10%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $730 $599 −$131 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $500 $562 +$62 (+12%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 80¢ $500 $542 +$42 (+8%)
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? No 66¢ 70¢ $500 $531 +$31 (+6%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $500 $515 +$15 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 15¢ 35¢ $200 $480 +$280 (+140%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $500 $480 −$20 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 8¢ 18¢ $200 $439 +$239 (+119%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,030 +$244 +24%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $200 +$41 +21%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 10 $1,050 −$575 -55%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $208 −$200 -96%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 02 $1,000 +$362 +36%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 28 $250 +$2,372 +949%
Ethereal FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 28 $100 +$27 +27%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 25 $5,045 −$290 -6%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $304 +$296 +97%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $204 +$421 +206%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1,010 +$181 +18%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $153 −$150 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $205 −$53 -26%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 10 $504 −$504 -100%
Will SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? May 10 $204 −$204 -100%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? May 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 10 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 10 $1,000 −$620 -62%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 04 $205 −$200 -98%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $1,650 +$1,024 +62%
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $607 +$3,233 +533%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $4,260 +$3,796 +89%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $2,610 +$3,347 +128%
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $1,580 +$1,151 +73%
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $107 +$736 +688%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $738 +$417 +56%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 28 $890 −$595 -67%
Fluent FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Fulham FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 26 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Getafe CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Fluent FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 25 $1,000 +$264 +26%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $1,600 +$98 +6%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $200 +$317 +159%
OpenGradient FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 23 $100 +$221 +221%
Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 22 $340 −$33 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $2,000 +$330 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $700 −$258 -37%
USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 21 $200 +$6 +3%
Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026? Apr 20 $50 −$8 -16%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5,000 −$148 -3%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats? Apr 14 $700 −$547 -78%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Apr 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats? Apr 14 $691 −$691 -100%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats? Apr 12 $1,000 +$342 +34%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 10 $5,000 −$1,600 -32%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $550 +$473 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 55% +$10,865
politics 23% −$181
world 16% −$1,018
economics 3% −$3,155
sports 2% +$668
crypto 1% +$332
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 26¢ $358 9h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,280 9h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1,273 9h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $241 10h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $5,058 21h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $475 40h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1,050 40h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 40h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 41h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 44h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 44h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 45h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 46h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 2d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.4% -12.6% 67% 67% -21.0%
≤30d 12 +93.1% +74.7% 67% 67% +10.2%
≤90d 49 +32.7% +20.0% 47% 43% +13.1%
all 49 +32.7% +20.0% 47% 43% +13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover45.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.0% 43% +13.1%
10% +8.5% 37% +2.3%
15% ← realistic here -2.0% 29% -7.6%
20% -11.6% 27% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36,073.93 · official $36,424.12 (match) · 3500 history records