Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x6455…caf4
sports · 14 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$19 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$26
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 43¢ 57¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles San Diego Padres 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets St. Louis Cardinals 43¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5 +$5 +101%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $5 +$5 +101%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $5 +$6 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $5 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $5 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $5 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $5 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $5 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 41¢ $5 25h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $5 25h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 46¢ $5 43h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ $5 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 43¢ $5 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $5 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $5 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $5 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 46¢ $5 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 47¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -32.1% -38.5% 33% 33% -44.6%
≤30d 9 -32.1% -38.5% 33% 33% -44.6%
≤90d 9 -32.1% -38.5% 33% 33% -44.6%
all 9 -32.1% -38.5% 33% 33% -44.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.5% 33% -44.6%
10% -44.4% 33% -49.9%
15% -49.8% 33% -54.7%
20% -54.7% 33% -59.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.36 · official $26.36 (match) · 22 history records