Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:41:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x645e…a71f world 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% $0
finance 19% −$3
other 10% +$1
crypto 7% $0
politics 7% $0
sports 3% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -0.9% -10.3% 12% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 8 -0.9% -10.3% 12% 0% -10.8%
all 24 -1.5% -10.9% 46% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 4% -10.0%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage484d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $17 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $57 −$3 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $13 −$1 -6%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Dec 10 $7 $0 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 21 $1 $0 +4%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 23 $7 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 07 $8 $0 +3%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -57%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $10 $0 -1%
Gonzaga vs. Washington State Mar 04 $10 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $32 10m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $18 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $34 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $34 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $44 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $43 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $43 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $12 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 24d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $1 329d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY No 96¢ $1 382d
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? BUY No 94¢ $7 390d
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? SELL No 99¢ $7 390d
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? BUY No 98¢ $7 396d
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? SELL No 45¢ $7 396d
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? BUY No 45¢ $3 397d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records