Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:16:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
64 0x645e…d120 sports 346 markets active 2h ago coverage 681d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14,695 (-8%) realized −$14,695 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%150W / 196L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$552per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$919
7 days+$2,237
14 days+$5,399
30 days+$4,975
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$6,907
economics 21% −$11,760
world 15% +$4,064
other 13% −$2,093
politics 13% +$2,334
crypto 5% +$1,992
finance 1% −$1,161
culture 0% −$496
tech 0% −$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -25.9% -32.9% 50% 50% +23.8%
≤30d 10 -19.9% -27.5% 40% 40% +34.4%
≤90d 11 -12.9% -21.2% 45% 45% +35.5%
all 346 -9.8% -18.4% 43% 40% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 40% -16.3%
10% -26.2% 35% -24.3%
15% -33.3% 26% -31.6%
20% -39.9% 18% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$522) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$286 vs −$291 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

681d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14,695
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses150 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)346 / 346
History coverage681d
Avg bet$552
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 346 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $1,857 +$1,444 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $362 −$350 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $78 −$75 -96%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $2,104 +$1,037 +49%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1,593 +$281 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3,008 +$3,225 +107%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $530 −$63 -12%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $275 −$221 -80%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $350 −$203 -58%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $1,935 +$1,089 +56%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 20 $384 −$136 -35%
Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 05 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more? Feb 04 $522 −$417 -80%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 04 $2,462 −$2,227 -90%
Nets vs. Nuggets Feb 04 $52 −$52 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Feb 04 $687 −$87 -13%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Feb 04 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 02 $1,867 +$1,146 +61%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Jan 30 $500 −$308 -62%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $10,623 −$3,664 -34%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $9,101 −$6,152 -68%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jan 24 $1,412 −$288 -20%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 18 $1,173 −$73 -6%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 16 $12,736 −$1,403 -11%
Wizards vs. Clippers Jan 15 $35 −$10 -29%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 15 $1,618 −$162 -10%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $3,072 −$1,029 -34%
Israel strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $16 −$6 -37%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 11 $529 −$41 -8%
Nuggets vs. Magic Jan 06 $60 −$60 -100%
Nuggets vs. Nets Jan 06 $200 −$200 -100%
Hornets vs. Thunder Jan 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Nuggets vs. 76ers Jan 06 $216 −$216 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 6? Jan 06 $240 −$13 -5%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers Jan 05 $500 −$50 -10%
Celtics vs. Clippers Jan 04 $200 +$217 +108%
USC vs. TCU Dec 31 $300 +$318 +106%
Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Monday? Dec 30 $91 −$29 -32%
Suns vs. Pelicans Dec 28 $100 +$47 +47%
Steelers vs. Browns Dec 28 $335 −$335 -100%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 24 $44 −$30 -68%
Eagles vs. Packers Dec 13 $250 +$66 +26%
Celtics vs. 76ers Dec 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Dec 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Hawks vs. Clippers Dec 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Raptors vs. Nets Dec 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Knicks Dec 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 12? Dec 13 $505 −$505 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Dec 13 $400 −$400 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $154 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2440 history records