trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? | No | 21¢ | 31¢ | $0 | $1 | +$0 (+48%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $4 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Dec 14 | $2 | +$2 | +119% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | May 23 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? | Apr 26 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | Apr 25 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can | Apr 25 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island | Apr 24 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? | Apr 23 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Apr 23 | $27 | $0 | -0% |
| Will AppLovin buy TikTok? | Apr 22 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Sebastian-Constantin Popescu advance to the Romanian Presidential | Apr 22 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? | Apr 22 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | Apr 21 | $17 | −$1 | -7% |
| Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 17 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Masters? | Apr 15 | $11 | +$7 | +58% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 13 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? | Apr 12 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| TikTok sale announced before May? | Apr 11 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Apr 11 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 110-119 times April 4 - 11? | Apr 09 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 08 | $12 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 06 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? | Mar 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Atalanta win the Serie A? | Mar 22 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -9.1% | -17.7% | 0% | 0% | -17.7% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -9.1% | -17.7% | 0% | 0% | -17.7% |
| ≤90d | 1 | -9.1% | -17.7% | 0% | 0% | -17.7% |
| all | 26 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 50% | 8% | -7.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.6% | 8% | -7.4% |
| 10% | -19.2% | 8% | -16.3% |
| 15% | -27.0% | 8% | -24.4% |
| 20% | -34.2% | 8% | -31.8% |