Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
64 0x6463…8d6b sports 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$213 (+12%) realized +$213 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$44
sports 40% −$51
crypto 11% +$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +7.5% -2.7% 67% 50% -2.4%
≤30d 6 +7.5% -2.7% 67% 50% -2.4%
≤90d 6 +7.5% -2.7% 67% 50% -2.4%
all 6 +7.5% -2.7% 67% 50% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 50% -2.4%
10% -12.0% 50% -11.7%
15% -20.5% 33% -20.3%
20% -28.3% 33% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$125 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$213
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $324 +$16 +5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $393 −$69 -18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $460 +$113 +24%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $183 −$180 -99%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $186 +$112 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $199 +$145 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 75¢ $340 3m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $324 15m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 71¢ $324 15m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $393 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $386 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $112 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $183 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $299 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $186 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $187 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $343 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $344 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $199 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records