Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:03:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6463…e8fd other 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,810 (-16%) realized −$1,564 · open −$246
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%40W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$1,383
world 28% −$1,417
politics 13% −$508
sports 9% −$783
culture 5% −$491
crypto 1% −$25
weather 0% −$2
tech 0% −$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +14.4% +3.5% 100% 100% +3.5%
≤30d 1 +14.4% +3.5% 100% 100% +3.5%
≤90d 1 +14.4% +3.5% 100% 100% +3.5%
all 138 -33.7% -40.0% 29% 25% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.0% 25% -26.2%
10% -45.8% 20% -33.3%
15% -51.0% 18% -39.7%
20% -55.8% 15% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$51 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$1,316
Realized−$1,564
Unrealized−$246
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses40 / 98
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)138 / 142
History coverage128d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $776 $742 −$34 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $333 $295 −$38 (-11%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $400 $250 −$150 (-38%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Over 85¢ 46¢ $53 $28 −$25 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $45 +$6 +14%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 22 $2,651 −$1,746 -66%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $50 −$1 -2%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $50 −$15 -30%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $50 −$5 -10%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $50 −$8 -16%
Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Quest Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference? Mar 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister Mar 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $300 −$299 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 16 $300 −$300 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $2 +$4 +222%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $300 +$450 +150%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $300 +$62 +20%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $250 +$345 +138%
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10? Mar 11 $500 +$1,690 +338%
Will Iran strike Jordan in March? Mar 10 $100 +$22 +22%
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars? Mar 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bugonia win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Mar 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility? Mar 07 $289 +$287 +100%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 07 $30 +$18 +60%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $142 +$196 +138%
Beşiktaş JK vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 4.5 Mar 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Göztepe SK: O/U 1.5 Mar 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 05 $53 −$49 -93%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Circuit X Pantanal Cuia Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in April 2026? Mar 05 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 05 $40 +$28 +70%
Will Trump say "xAI" during tech signing event on Wednesday? Mar 04 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump say "Friend of Mine" during meetings with Chancellor Merz? Mar 03 $30 +$30 +101%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers Le Mar 03 $30 −$17 -57%
Will Trump say "Camp" this week? (March 8) Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest Nation" in March? Mar 03 $200 −$58 -29%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" or "MAGA" this week? (March Mar 03 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8) Mar 03 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Melania say "Foster" or "Fostering" during Security Council event Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 02 $14 −$6 -42%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $40 −$21 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $53 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $45 8h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $23 8h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $21 8h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $369 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $412 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $823 2d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 93d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? SELL No 2¢ $10 93d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? BUY No 25¢ $129 94d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $49 95d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $35 95d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $45 95d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? BUY No 23¢ $42 95d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $42 95d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? BUY No 27¢ $1,841 95d
Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister BUY No 4¢ $10 97d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 97d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? SELL Yes 34¢ $49 97d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 97d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 35¢ $50 97d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY G2 Esports 18¢ $20 97d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY G2 Esports 18¢ $30 97d
Will Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Quest BUY Yes 25¢ $100 97d
Will Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions BUY Yes 25¢ $100 97d
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference? BUY No 19¢ $100 97d
Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister BUY No 36¢ $200 98d
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-03-16? BUY Yes 23¢ $300 99d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 21¢ $300 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,315.59 · official $1,315.59 (match) · 286 history records