Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6467…85e4 sports 31 markets active 3d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$40 (-25%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$19
other 31% −$16
crypto 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -19.9% -27.5% 43% 35% -31.9%
≤30d 29 -23.5% -30.8% 45% 31% -33.3%
≤90d 29 -23.5% -30.8% 45% 31% -33.3%
all 29 -23.5% -30.8% 45% 31% -33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 31% -33.3%
10% -37.4% 31% -39.7%
15% -43.4% 31% -45.5%
20% -49.0% 31% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage5d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $6 +$5 +86%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +56%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$8 +152%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +67%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Baltimore Orioles winning after 5 innings? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Texas Rangers winning after 5 innings? Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Colorado Rockies winning after 5 innings? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
George Kirby: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Framber Valdez: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Chris Sale: Strikeouts O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +73%
Michael Lorenzen: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $5 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Detroit Tigers 54¢ $5 2d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 10¢ $1 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 58¢ $5 4d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 53¢ $6 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $5 4d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 55¢ $5 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 64¢ $10 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 52¢ $5 5d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 54¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 50¢ $3 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 5d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 5d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 51¢ $5 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 6d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $5 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 6d
Texas Rangers winning after 5 innings? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 7d
Baltimore Orioles winning after 5 innings? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 7d
Colorado Rockies winning after 5 innings? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up $5 7d
Michael Lorenzen: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 8d
Chris Sale: Strikeouts O/U 7.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records