Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6469…b890 weather 985 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$28,426 (-5%) realized −$28,312 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate79%779W / 204L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$617per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,486now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days−$81
14 days−$2,425
30 days−$5,908
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$39,597
weather 4% −$256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -19.1% -26.8% 58% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 192 -13.3% -21.6% 57% 7% -16.1%
≤90d 983 -2.7% -12.0% 79% 12% -15.5%
all 983 -2.7% -12.0% 79% 12% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 12% -15.5%
10% -20.4% 8% -23.6%
15% ← realistic here -28.1% 5% -30.9%
20% -35.2% 3% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$321 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$1,486
Realized−$28,312
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses779 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)983 / 985
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$617
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 983 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? No 96¢ 97¢ $1,100 $1,105 +$5 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? Yes 75¢ 57¢ $500 $381 −$119 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $3,343 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,550 +$119 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $3,588 +$19 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,488 +$46 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $3,234 +$46 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $503 −$499 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $1,948 −$5 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,774 +$131 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $1,818 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $1,754 +$65 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $1,686 +$68 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 13 $383 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,604 +$25 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $504 +$53 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? Jun 12 $1,154 −$48 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,604 +$54 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $603 +$42 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,458 +$103 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on May 4? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on May Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 13? Jun 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 15? Jun 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 10 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 8? Jun 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 11? Jun 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 14? Jun 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 10 $630 −$80 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 22? Jun 10 $83 −$83 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on May 12? Jun 10 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 24? Jun 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? Jun 10 $926 +$47 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,141 −$967 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $471 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $3,082 −$1,033 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,409 −$209 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,654 +$51 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,107 +$106 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $384 +$58 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,705 +$101 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $60 −$2 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,004 +$57 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,298 +$115 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? Jun 04 $191 +$11 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,087 +$31 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 3? Jun 03 $61 +$19 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $1,103 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 75¢ $509 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1,671 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,673 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1,673 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $1,670 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,669 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 94¢ $491 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,059 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,039 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $512 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $508 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $507 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,548 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,549 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,532 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1,534 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $1,488 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,296 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 85¢ $1,297 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $496 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 97¢ $496 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,938 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,943 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,903 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,486.21 · official $1,486.28 (match) · 3500 history records