Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:34:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x646a…4635 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$327 (-10%) realized −$357 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate56%27W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$326
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 12 -20.0% -27.6% 42% 42% -17.7%
all 48 -8.1% -16.8% 56% 33% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 33% -21.3%
10% -24.8% 29% -28.8%
15% -32.0% 19% -35.7%
20% -38.7% 12% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$35 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$397
Realized−$357
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses27 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage200d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Surf FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 79¢ 85¢ $367 $397 +$30 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 26 $118 −$118 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 18 $81 +$38 +47%
Sentio FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 18 $20 −$18 -93%
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 14 $21 +$28 +134%
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 14 $36 +$14 +40%
Valantis FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 09 $100 $0 +0%
Mezo FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 03 $2 $0 +16%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 30 $273 +$144 +53%
Based FDV above $75M one day after launch? Mar 30 $116 −$77 -67%
Based FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 30 $91 −$64 -70%
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Perle Labs FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Perle Labs FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Perle Labs FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 27 $135 +$5 +4%
Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 27 $8 +$2 +24%
Perle Labs FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 27 $199 +$2 +1%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $8 $0 +6%
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 25 $154 −$81 -53%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 24 $18 +$2 +9%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 20 $11 $0 +4%
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 19 $42 +$7 +17%
Rainbow FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Superform FDV above $20M one day after launch? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 15 $16 $0 +1%
Unitas Labs FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 15 $121 $0 +0%
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Mar 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Unitas Labs FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 11 $4 +$2 +47%
Nebula3 FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 11 $0 $0 -85%
Katana FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 09 $3 +$1 +27%
Block Street FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 05 $2 +$2 +150%
Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 03 $15 +$1 +4%
MagicBlock FDV above $10M one day after launch? Mar 03 $2 $0 -19%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Mar 03 $2 +$2 +115%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Mar 03 $12 +$4 +34%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 02 $30 +$1 +2%
Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 02 $13 $0 -0%
Superform FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 02 $5 +$5 +85%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 12 $10 +$8 +82%
Tria FDV above $20M one day after launch? Feb 06 $24 +$6 +25%
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch? Feb 02 $33 −$33 -100%
Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jan 30 $8 +$2 +28%
Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jan 30 $10 $0 +5%
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 28 $7 −$3 -47%
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 28 $1 $0 +0%
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 28 $6 $0 +7%
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 08 $924 −$185 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Surf FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 85¢ $42 1h
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 3¢ $5 70d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 3¢ $12 70d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 4¢ $5 70d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 5¢ $2 70d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 5¢ $0 70d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 5¢ $2 70d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 5¢ $1 70d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 16¢ $2 70d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 15¢ $2 70d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 13¢ $1 70d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 13¢ $12 70d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 13¢ $3 70d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 7¢ $3 71d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 7¢ $8 71d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 7¢ $3 71d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 6¢ $6 71d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 4¢ $1 71d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 3¢ $1 71d
Sentio FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 71d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 4¢ $2 71d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 2¢ $38 71d
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 22¢ $22 71d
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 54¢ $65 71d
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 51¢ $18 71d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 71d
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $45 71d
Sentio FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 71d
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 73d
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $396.99 · official $396.99 (match) · 264 history records