Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x646d…0d58 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-3%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$79
14 days−$97
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$77
politics 14% −$9
world 10% −$3
tech 5% −$5
culture 5% −$4
finance 3% −$2
economics 3% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -4.6% -13.7% 0% 0% -13.7%
≤30d 35 -4.9% -13.9% 0% 0% -13.8%
≤90d 35 -4.9% -13.9% 0% 0% -13.8%
all 35 -4.9% -13.9% 0% 0% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 0% -13.8%
10% -22.2% 0% -22.0%
15% -29.7% 0% -29.6%
20% -36.6% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage22d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? Jun 28 $192 −$10 -5%
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 28 $107 −$7 -7%
Will Corbin Carroll hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular seaso Jun 28 $5 $0 -2%
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? Jun 28 $47 −$1 -3%
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Sen Jun 28 $82 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian S Jun 27 $176 −$3 -2%
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Jun 27 $106 −$3 -3%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–J Jun 27 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 27 $112 −$4 -3%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Jun 27 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 26 $57 −$2 -3%
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Jun 25 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 25 $74 −$4 -6%
Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 NL East title? Jun 25 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 -5%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 23 $210 −$24 -12%
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 23 $34 −$2 -5%
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $35 −$2 -5%
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 23 $4 $0 -2%
Will Symbiotic launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 22 $2 $0 -11%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market clos Jun 22 $66 −$3 -4%
Will Hotstuff launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 22 $12 $0 -4%
Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 22 $23 −$2 -10%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 22 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Curvance launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 21 $166 −$4 -2%
Tabi FDV above $250M one day after launch? Jun 20 $4 $0 -6%
Will Tori launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 20 $63 −$4 -7%
Will Hotstuff launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Tori launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $74 −$4 -6%
GMGN FDV above $300M one day after launch Jun 20 $137 −$5 -4%
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 20 $46 −$2 -5%
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 20 $9 −$1 -8%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? Jun 07 $57 −$2 -3%
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Jun 06 $58 −$3 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $182 1h
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $192 1h
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 2h
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 2h
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title? SELL No 70¢ $94 4h
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title? BUY No 74¢ $101 4h
Will Corbin Carroll hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular seaso SELL No 26¢ $5 4h
Will Corbin Carroll hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular seaso BUY No 26¢ $5 4h
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? SELL Yes 62¢ $45 5h
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? BUY Yes 63¢ $47 5h
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Sen SELL Yes 76¢ $81 5h
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Sen BUY Yes 76¢ $82 5h
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian S SELL No 66¢ $173 21h
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian S BUY No 67¢ $176 21h
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? SELL No 55¢ $39 23h
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? BUY No 56¢ $40 23h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–J SELL Yes 16¢ $8 23h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–J BUY Yes 16¢ $8 23h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–J SELL No 84¢ $43 24h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–J BUY No 84¢ $44 24h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 32h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 32h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $39 34h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $40 34h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 34¢ $105 38h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 38h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 34¢ $89 38h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 34¢ $17 38h
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 2d
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records