Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:22:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x646f…43fc world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 25L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$3
other 16% −$3
finance 6% +$9
politics 5% $0
culture 4% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 16 +0.5% -9.0% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 20 +0.4% -9.1% 35% 0% -9.3%
all 36 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage303d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $174 −$1 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $88 −$2 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $168 −$4 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $61 −$2 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $117 +$5 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $79 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $84 −$2 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $72 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $73 −$3 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $71 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $15 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 24 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 26 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 24 $2 $0 -4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $39 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $29 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $35 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $37 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $2 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $23 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $62 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $38 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $42 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $86 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $42 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $15 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $28 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $27 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $61 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $25 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $63 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $42 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $13 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $88 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $88 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $27 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $48 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $73 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records