Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6476…393e weather 216 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$783 (-4%) realized −$780 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate89%178W / 23L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$955now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$13
14 days+$18
30 days−$554
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$868
finance 4% +$6
world 1% +$4
tech 1% −$3
other 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -9.2% -17.8% 86% 14% -17.8%
≤30d 133 -6.4% -15.3% 89% 14% -15.3%
≤90d 201 -3.7% -12.8% 89% 24% -9.9%
all 201 -3.7% -12.8% 89% 24% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 24% -9.9%
10% -21.2% 6% -18.5%
15% -28.8% 2% -26.4%
20% -35.8% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$98 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$955
Realized−$780
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses178 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)201 / 216
History coverage73d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $299 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $107 $107 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 26? No 100¢ 99¢ $90 $89 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 26? No 97¢ 98¢ $68 $68 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 26? No 100¢ 99¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 26? No 98¢ 94¢ $61 $59 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 26? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? No 96¢ 94¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 26? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? No 98¢ 98¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 26? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $20 +$5 +25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $131 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $26 −$26 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $26 −$26 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $42 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $28 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $82 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $247 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $63 +$5 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $300 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $90 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 97¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on June 26 BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $107 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $4 14d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $4 14d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $27 14d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $27 14d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $15 14d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 89¢ $27 14d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $30 14d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $29 14d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $28 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $954.83 · official $955.52 (match) · 467 history records