trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 67% | 33% | -12.9% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +4.6% | -5.3% | 89% | 22% | -4.8% |
| ≤90d | 23 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 87% | 17% | -5.5% |
| all | 23 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 87% | 17% | -5.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.0% | 17% | -5.5% |
| 10% | -17.7% | 0% | -14.5% |
| 15% | -25.7% | 0% | -22.8% |
| 20% | -33.0% | 0% | -30.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 90¢ | 98¢ | $3,510 | $3,816 | +$306 (+9%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 80¢ | 93¢ | $800 | $934 | +$134 (+17%) |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? | Yes | 50¢ | 48¢ | $958 | $933 | −$25 (-3%) |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? | Yes | 36¢ | 38¢ | $700 | $749 | +$49 (+7%) |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | $46 | $47 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 22 | $1,236 | +$140 | +11% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? | Jun 18 | $1,424 | +$94 | +7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 18 | $2,773 | −$438 | -16% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | Jun 12 | $1,179 | +$92 | +8% |
| Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? | Jun 12 | $1,007 | +$35 | +4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | Jun 09 | $2,571 | +$80 | +3% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? | Jun 01 | $1,245 | +$66 | +5% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? | May 29 | $461 | +$19 | +4% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? | May 27 | $4,983 | +$790 | +16% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? | May 07 | $411 | +$53 | +13% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? | May 01 | $3,462 | +$232 | +7% |
| Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? | Apr 30 | $1,829 | +$170 | +9% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 27 | $1,391 | +$13 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 25 | $3,744 | +$143 | +4% |
| USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? | Apr 23 | $708 | +$47 | +7% |
| USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Apr 23 | $2,613 | +$376 | +14% |
| Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Apr 17 | $3,306 | −$13 | -0% |
| Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Apr 16 | $1,091 | +$7 | +1% |
| Sentio FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Apr 16 | $258 | −$253 | -98% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026? | Apr 16 | $318 | +$4 | +1% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Apr 15 | $4,795 | +$132 | +3% |
| Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Apr 14 | $1,551 | +$133 | +9% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | Apr 12 | $1,531 | +$30 | +2% |