Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
64 0x6479…5e64 sports 1574 markets active 2h ago coverage 570d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9,168 (-3%) realized −$9,168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%737W / 837L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$1,241est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$646
7 days+$322
14 days−$2,294
30 days−$1,793
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$452
other 39% −$8,814
crypto 2% −$1,481
world 0% −$170
politics 0% −$135
economics 0% −$264
culture 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 60% 50% -7.1%
≤30d 66 +1.0% -8.6% 58% 53% -11.7%
≤90d 522 +1.1% -8.5% 53% 49% -9.3%
all 1574 -4.4% -13.5% 47% 40% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 40% -12.1%
10% -21.8% 34% -20.5%
15% -29.4% 29% -28.2%
20% -36.3% 24% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$96 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

570d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses737 / 837
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$1,241
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1574 / 1574
History coverage570d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1574 Trades
no open positions (398 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,981 +$190 +10%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $1,523 −$1,208 -79%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $610 −$464 -76%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,014 +$836 +82%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,918 +$856 +45%
Will UD Almería vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? Jun 20 $812 −$421 -52%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,110 +$450 +40%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $715 +$662 +93%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,204 +$143 +12%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,019 −$722 -71%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,016 +$846 +83%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $408 +$659 +162%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $122 +$32 +26%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,167 −$600 -51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,282 −$1,100 -86%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,017 +$690 +68%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $892 +$381 +43%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $406 −$332 -82%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $118 −$115 -98%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $527 +$473 +90%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $123 +$106 +86%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $161 +$150 +93%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $272 −$179 -66%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $61 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +95%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $248 +$29 +12%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $341 +$17 +5%
Will Belarus vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? Jun 09 $1,401 −$626 -45%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2,141 −$1,732 -81%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $1,310 −$1,259 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $1,676 −$87 -5%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 08 $1,311 −$1,300 -99%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $4,032 +$1,439 +36%
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Jun 07 $1,456 −$1,430 -98%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2,229 +$1,665 +75%
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Jun 06 $1,015 −$694 -68%
Will Armenia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 06 $1,017 +$1,254 +123%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3,060 +$1,435 +47%
Will Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC end in a draw? Jun 06 $1,020 −$300 -29%
Will Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw? Jun 06 $1,565 −$1,555 -99%
Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Nagoya Grampus end in a draw? Jun 06 $2,017 +$758 +38%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $4,040 −$1,089 -27%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $4,522 +$1,881 +42%
Will Azerbaijan vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 05 $1,628 −$649 -40%
Will San Marino vs. Bangladesh end in a draw? Jun 05 $594 −$499 -84%
Will Moldova vs. Bulgaria end in a draw? Jun 05 $2,830 −$2,240 -79%
Will Slovakia vs. Montenegro end in a draw? Jun 05 $2,738 +$729 +27%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2,021 −$1,651 -82%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2,525 +$1,203 +48%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $917 −$900 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,981 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $109 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $106 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $99 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,523 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 11¢ $146 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $610 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,850 33h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,014 34h
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,774 2d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,918 2d
Will UD Almería vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $391 2d
Will UD Almería vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $812 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,560 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,110 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $1,377 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $715 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,347 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,204 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $297 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,019 6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $1,862 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,016 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,067 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $408 7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $154 8d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 47¢ $122 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $185 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $151 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $154 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3378 history records