Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
64 0x647a…a58b crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%30W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% $0
other 22% $0
weather 9% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 30 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 30 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 30 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses30 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage28d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will AutoSleep: Watch Sleep Tracker be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 4? Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 1? Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 31? Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 30? May 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on May 28? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 26? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or below on May 25? May 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24? May 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 22? May 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 21? May 21 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $16 45m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $15 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 4d
Will AutoSleep: Watch Sleep Tracker be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $23 7d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $25 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $20 11d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $17 13d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 13d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 14d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $16 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 16d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 17d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $18 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $26 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $21 20d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $20 21d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 22d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $20 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 23d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or below on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $18 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 25d
Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $6 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.90 · official $15.90 (match) · 61 history records