Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

64 0x648e…e2fa crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$132 (+20%) realized +$138 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%15W / 9L

Drawdown29%max

Avg bet$26per market

Trades / day18.2pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit84%portable

Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)-3.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	+6.6%	-3.6%	62%	62%	+6.7%
≤30d	24	+6.6%	-3.6%	62%	62%	+6.7%
≤90d	24	+6.6%	-3.6%	62%	62%	+6.7%
all	24	+6.6%	-3.6%	62%	62%	+6.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover18.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.6%	62%	+6.7%
10%	-12.8%	62%	-3.5%
15%	-21.2%	42%	-12.8%
20%	-29.0%	33%	-21.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +15% → late -2% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18 vs −$17 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$8

Realized+$138

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses15 / 9

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)24 / 25

History coverage3d

Avg bet$26

Trades / day18.2

Drawdown29%

Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	60¢	34¢	$15	$8	−$6 (-43%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Jun 17	$37	+$25	+67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Jun 17	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 17	$79	+$19	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Jun 17	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$6	+124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$3	+67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$38	+146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 17	$10	+$16	+150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET	Jun 17	$26	−$25	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-95%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$30	+$18	+60%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5	Jun 16	$20	+$6	+27%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$22	+$9	+40%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$20	+$12	+58%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$20	−$20	-99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$25	+$6	+26%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Jun 15	$118	+$38	+33%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO?	Jun 15	$31	+$49	+161%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO?	Jun 15	$31	−$30	-98%
O/U 0.5 Rounds	Jun 15	$30	+$10	+33%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO?	Jun 15	$22	+$9	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	60¢	$15	22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	SELL Up	68¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	SELL Up	37¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	SELL Up	53¢	$47	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	SELL Down	22¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	SELL Down	24¢	$28	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	SELL Up	38¢	$37	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	SELL Up	33¢	$28	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	SELL Down	68¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	SELL Down	62¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$26	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$26	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET	SELL Down	1¢	$1	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$5	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$5	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$26	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$5	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	22¢	$5	6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	62¢	$30	16h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.50 · official $8.50 (match) · 53 history records