Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x6494…eb4e
crypto · 63 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$39 -27%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$37 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses29 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)53 / 63
History coverage13d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 10 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$20
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 87¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Yes 54¢ 58¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 49¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Down 76¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $122 Week of June 8 2026? No 71¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-30%)
3Jane FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 85¢ 78¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 53¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +42%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 2AM ET Jun 05 $9 −$5 -52%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 2AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 3AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$1 +38%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$2 +218%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 05 $9 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +34%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -67%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -78%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$2 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$2 -52%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +7%
BNB Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 01 $3 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 75% −$35
other 15% −$2
sports 5% −$1
finance 3% −$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $1 16m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $1 22m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $1 23m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $1 23m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 87¢ $1 34m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 87¢ $1 34m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 42m
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $122 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 82¢ $1 43m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 77¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $122 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 71¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 53¢ $1 2h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
3Jane FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL No 73¢ $1 3h
3Jane FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 85¢ $1 3h
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 70¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? SELL Down 96¢ $2 7d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 5? SELL Up 0¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 7d
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 3AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -30.0% -36.7% 50% 50% -94.0%
≤30d 53 -8.5% -17.2% 55% 36% -35.5%
≤90d 53 -8.5% -17.2% 55% 36% -35.5%
all 53 -8.5% -17.2% 55% 36% -35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 36% -35.5%
10% -25.1% 30% -41.7%
15% -32.4% 23% -47.3%
20% -39.0% 13% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.71 · official $13.85 (match) · 172 history records