Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x6495…0181 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$223 (-1%) realized +$799 · open −$1,022
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,753per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$678now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$3,222
sports 39% +$1,904
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +25.3% +13.4% 83% 83% +9.3%
≤30d 6 +25.3% +13.4% 83% 83% +9.3%
≤90d 6 +25.3% +13.4% 83% 83% +9.3%
all 6 +25.3% +13.4% 83% 83% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.4% 83% +9.3%
10% ← realistic here +2.5% 83% -1.1%
15% -7.4% 67% -10.7%
20% -16.5% 33% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$907 vs −$4,834 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$678
Realized+$799
Unrealized−$1,022
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,753
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $500 $492 −$8 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 0¢ $1,000 $1 −$999 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,045 +$2,103 +69%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,008 +$917 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,307 +$306 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,012 +$502 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,105 +$709 +64%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7,322 −$4,834 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $510 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $4,162 2h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $1,016 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $1,016 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 53¢ $986 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,013 10h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $1,014 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $504 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 91¢ $1,514 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $998 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $803 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1,012 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,815 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,004 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $2,339 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 32¢ $2,343 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $4,982 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $677.97 · official $677.97 (match) · 24 history records